Mississippi’s Third Congressional District has not elected a Democrat to Congress in nearly three decades.

But by multiple measures of recent voting behavior and partisan performance, it is the least Republican of Mississippi’s Republican-held congressional districts.

That makes what happened in the last midterm election particularly interesting.

In 2022, four-term Republican Congressman Michael Guest defeated then-Democrat Shuwaski Young by a wide margin.

Young had one of the weakest Democratic congressional performances Mississippi has seen in recent memory.

He has since abandoned the Democratic Party to run as a Republican and embraced the kind of right-wing culture-war politics he once ran against.

And his disastrous campaign left Democrats with an equally disastrous benchmark in the Third District.

But even in that election, Guest won with just 132,481 votes.

For political newcomer Michael Chiaradio, that makes turnout one of the central questions of 2026.

Chiaradio was a constituent of Guest in 2024 when he looked at his ballot in his tiny hometown of Shubuta, Mississippi, and saw the congressman running without an opponent.

Two years later, Michael A. Chiaradio is a first-time candidate and the Democratic nominee challenging Guest.

His campaign has taken him across a district that can be difficult and expensive to organize.

The district’s main population centers are spread across a large section of central and eastern Mississippi, requiring long trips between important communities.

Chiaradio has spent the campaign arguing that Democrats have not recognized the true political value hidden across the sprawling district.

And finding value where other people have stopped looking fits Chiaradio’s worldview from long before his life in politics began.

Chiaradio moved to Shubuta in 2023 after buying a house and land without ever visiting it.

He raises cattle and sheep there today, while his congressional financial disclosures show a years-long history of investing in healthcare real estate and American energy.

Across his public statements and interviews, the common idea has been finding value in places and assets other people have overlooked or become afraid to invest in.

That concept also runs throughout his remarkably detailed policy platform.

Chiaradio has proposed federal investments in healthcare infrastructure, agriculture, energy, transmission, and small businesses.

When it comes to Mississippi, Chiaradio argues that developing those assets could allow the state to play a larger role in building a stronger and more sustainable American economy.

He makes much the same value-investing argument about the Third District politically.

His campaign has focused heavily on participation and his belief that the district could become far more competitive for Democrats if more people voted.

Chiaradio has spent more than a year traveling the district and raising money to make that case directly to voters.

But he has repeatedly said that the campaign is bigger than any one candidate.

That argument has taken on additional meaning as Mississippi Democrats face another fight over congressional redistricting and the future of political representation in the state.

Now Chiaradio’s investment thesis is going to be tested in the political world.

He first came to Mississippi because he thought he had found something valuable that other people were overlooking.

Three years later, he is making essentially the same argument about the Third Congressional District and its value to the Democratic Party.

His campaign slogan is “We CAN Win.”

This November, the voters will decide whether he was right.